Match preview

Real Madrid head into the final game of the season with their league position already secured — second place is guaranteed regardless of the outcome. Still, this match carries major emotional significance. It marks Álvaro Arbeloa’s final appearance on the bench and Dani Carvajal’s farewell at the Santiago Bernabéu, giving the evening a mix of celebration and tension. While Madrid will be determined to sign off with a victory, reports of friction behind the scenes continue to cloud the mood, highlighted by Arbeloa’s absence from the club’s farewell dinner.

At home, Los Blancos have largely remained dependable despite an uneven campaign overall. Madrid have won nine of their last eleven matches at the Bernabéu and recently recorded composed victories over Oviedo (2-0) and Sevilla (1-0). Injuries and fitness concerns remain an issue, with Güler, Rodrygo, Mendy, and Militão unavailable, while Vinicius, Tchouaméni, and Heisén face late fitness checks. On the bright side, Federico Valverde’s return could restore much-needed energy and balance to midfield.

Athletic Bilbao, in contrast, arrive in Madrid looking like a side struggling to sustain momentum. Even with fewer matches after exits from both the Champions League and Copa del Rey, Ernesto Valverde’s men have failed to regain consistency. The veteran coach is also preparing for his final game in charge, but Athletic’s form has dipped badly — only ten points from their last eleven La Liga matches have seriously damaged their hopes of securing Europe. Qualification is still mathematically possible, but it would require victory in Madrid and help from elsewhere.

Defensively, the Basques have fallen well below their usual standards. Athletic have managed just one clean sheet in 26 matches across all competitions in 2026, conceding an average close to two goals per game. Goalkeeper Unai Simón has also endured a difficult spell, with the team conceding significantly more than expected based on chance quality. The suspension of Yuri Berchiche further weakens the visitors, especially given his influence both defensively and creatively from the left flank.

Probable lineups

Real Madrid: Courtois, García, Alaba, Rüdiger, Carvajal, Camavinga, Valverde, Díaz, Bellingham, Mastantuono, Mbappé.

Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Gorosabel, Álvarez, Laporte, Boiró, Rego, Ruiz, Williams, Navarro, Berenguer, Guruzeta.

Match facts and head-to-head

In four of the last six meetings between these teams, only one side has managed to score.

None of the last 13 encounters between Real Madrid and Athletic have produced more than three goals.

Madrid have won three of their last four home games against Athletic without conceding.

Real have finished with more corners than Athletic in 10 of their last 13 La Liga home meetings.

Eight of the last nine league clashes between the sides at the Bernabéu have ended with under 3.5 goals.

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